Thailand’s Logistics Outlook in 2025: Growing Amid Volatility Amid Global Economic Slowdown and Trade War Pressures

Last updated: 10 Sept 2025

In 2024, logistics service providers revenue is projected to expand by 5.1% from the previous year, supported by the recovery of international trade and rising global container shipping rates following the Red Sea crisis. For 2025, logistics revenue is expected to grow at a slower pace of 3.4%, reaching approximately THB 900 billion, due to declining transportation demand amid a slowing global economy, escalating geopolitical conflicts and trade barriers, and slower domestic consumption growth.

Regarding average transportation costs in 2025, they are expected to remain similar to 2024 but with higher volatility. Domestic road freight and global air freight rates are likely to stay stable, while global ocean freight rates are expected to decline. The average crude oil price is projected to decrease, which benefits costs on one hand but also allows service providers to adjust rates downward to remain competitive.

Green logistics and Logistics Technology (LogTech) are two growing trends in the logistics sector. Green logistics has become a global priority, prompting Thai logistics providers to expand environmentally friendly services in recent years. Meanwhile, LogTech enhances logistics management efficiency, speeds up operations, and reduces management costs.

Competition in the logistics industry is expected to remain high in the coming period, focusing on three main aspects:

1. Expansion of overlapping logistics services across transportation types and product categories, leading to price competition.

2. Competition on service quality, driven by increasing trade barriers.

3.Intense parcel delivery competition, both in pricing and service quality, due to a red ocean market dominated by several major players over the past few years.

Given these growth and competition trends, road freight providers and freight forwarders are expected to continue expanding, provided they maintain expertise in logistics management. Parcel delivery service providers, meanwhile, must closely monitor market competition.

Three major challenges for the logistics industry in 2025 and beyond are:

1. Slowing global economic growth with multiple risks, including geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, Chinas slower economic expansion, and climate change.

2. Transition to zero-carbon transportation, requiring logistics businesses to adapt service models and vehicles to comply with environmental regulations and carbon footprint reduction plans.

3. Increased use of AI in transportation, leveraging its ability to collect and analyze route data such as weather, traffic conditions, and freight rates, while also serving as a coordination platform between shippers and transport providers.

GTL OCS is ready to provide comprehensive logistics consulting to support your business, backed by over 10 years of expert experience.

LINE OFFICAL : @gtlocsthailand
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